With Marriage now legal in all of the east coast, It makes me wonder if this has a positive effect with other states. It seems like an argument people used in favor of same sex marriage was that neighboring states allowed them. What do you think. Will states that neighbor states keep allowing gay marriage until the only state that hasn't legalized gay marriage is Texas?
Probably actually, living in Texas is kind of embarrassing as far as the progress we're making, because we're not really making any. -_- Except Austin, Austin is super awesome and LGBT friendly but unfortunately it's basically the only part of Texas that is.
The statistics show that in Iowa, the counties that are on Iowa's state borders, neighboring Illinois, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Missouri, handed out more marriage licenses than the counties further into Iowa did. Iowa legalized gay marriage 4 years before Minnesota did, but can you guess why that fact would be?
Gay marriage isn't legal in all of the East Coast (I know because I live in Florida and last I checked the closest state to me that has it legalized is Maryland which is about a two day drive from here), just the Northern East Coast. However, to answer your question, I believe that as more states legalize it, the rest will follow the crowd because that is what humans do, they follow others.
Well, not all of the East has. Pennsylvania is more inland, but I doubt I'll see even civil unions from us yet anytime soon.
Because all the couples from the neighboring states go to Iowa to get married? Do I get captain obvious points? Yeah, unless my home state gets more progressive on gay rights issues, I'll probably get married(whenever that may be) in Iowa or possibly Illinois.
In Michigan our only hope of having legal gay marriage here is either a court decision or direct democracy, because the Republican-dominated Legislature isn't going to vote on it. If you get enough petition signatures, you can get a constitutional question on the ballot. It would be on the November 2014 ballot and would be a yes or no question. This is what happens all the time in California, because California has such open direct democracy laws. That was how Prop 8 happened, and so many special interest groups have put so many constitutional amendments on the ballots over the years that the California Constitution is now more than 300 pages long.
Your geographic analysis is off. Marriage equality is not legal all across the East Coast. But the North doesn't have to change, because marriage equality IS legal all across the Northeast now, a beautiful corridor of equality stretching from Maine way up in the Northeast corner right down to Maryland and D.C. This makes me proud to be a New Yorker and a Northeasterner (I also have some New England roots, having spent four years for college in Massachusetts, the first state in the union to legalize marriage equality way back in 2004), and now every New England state and every Northeastern state is a marriage equality zone. The only potential obstacle to this claim is Pennsylvania, however PA is not really a truly Northeastern state culturally or politically. The southeastern part of the state, in the Philadelphia area, it's definitely Northeastern and support for marriage equality is high there. Some liberal counties in that region, like Montgomery County, have been issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples even though it is not legal according to state law. However the huge central portion of Pennsylvania is backward redneck conservative country, more comparable to Southern states like West Virginia and Kentucky, and the Western portion of the state is more like a Midwestern Rust Belt state like Ohio. But I think even PA will fall pretty soon, it doesn't have any constitutional amendments or anything standing in the way, just a horribly unpopular Republican governor. Obviously the next region to solidify will be the Pacific Coast. Obviously the West Coast is easy since there's only 3 states there, and the biggest one, California, legalized it as a result of the SCOTUS ruling this year. Washington state passed marriage equality by referendum last year, leaving only Oregon as the holdout there. Sadly, despite it's liberal reputation, Oregon passed one of those nasty marriage amendments enshrining bigotry into its state constitution back in 2004, with a surprisingly sad 56.63% of the vote. So it will be a tough fight there still ahead. The Midwest is slowly making gains. Despite its Democratic lean in federal elections, it's a fairly divided region, there are still a lot of socially conservative Evangelical Christians in those states, like Michele Bachmann in Minnesota. MN did the right thing and rejected a bigotry amendment last year, paving the way to make it the first Midwestern state to legalize marriage equality legislatively. Iowa was forced by its Supreme Court to legalize marriage equality back in 2007. Unfortunately public opinion still lags in Midwestern states. Out West, I think we are seeing progress in New Mexico, with several counties already issuing marriage licenses and more to follow. The next Western state I could see legalizing is Colorado. Although it passed one of those nasty bigotry amendments in 2006 with 55% of the vote, that was still a relatively good showing for us back then, getting 45% on our side. With Colorado becoming increasingly liberal, especially on social issues, in recent years, I definitely think we already have majority support for marriage equality in CO. The Mormon Triangle (Idaho, Wyoming, Utah) is a lost cause for now, maybe Wyoming or Montana will surprise us in a decade or so's time. The South, however, is a trainwreck for us still. Every Southern state has an anti-gay marriage amendment, most of them passing by massive landslide margins with every county voting for them. In Mississippi, 86% voted to enshrine bigotry into their state constitution, at least 70% in every single county. The only Southern states I could see changing are the increasingly Northernized pseudo-Southern states like Virginia and Florida. The liberal Northern Virginia suburbs continue to boom in population, they are the reason Virginia voted for Barack Obama twice, and they will shape that state's politics in our favor in the years to come, even if the rest of the state doesn't like it. Florida also has lots of liberal Northeastern transplants, especially in South Florida. Key West, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Orlando, St. Petersburg, Tampa, etc, could eventually turn the state our way, even if the Southern rednecks in the Panhandle don't like it. The Deep South, however...not for a generation at least. The hatred and bigotry just runs deep down there, they still haven't gotten over being forced to treat black people equally, never mind homos. The interior South, like Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, will also hold out 'til the end against equality. The South as a whole will be the very last region to accept civil rights for homosexuals, just like they were with African-Americans. Sadly, just as with the black civil rights movement, they will probably eventually be forced to accept equality by federal government intervention.
