90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the economy

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

For some reason, I feel like this big of a change can't happen in just 10 years... but we'll see. I might be completely wrong about this. It's equally exciting as it's scary.

However, I will probably forever own a car I have to drive myself, just because I love to drive. Cars (you know, the ones that excessively drink petrol and always smell in the morning) are one of my biggest hobbies.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

This has been a long time coming, but dependant mainly on two thithings: population density and public transport. In any city where there is high population density and a good public transportation system, cars easentially become obsolete as a matter of course. But in instances such as say Toronto, where there aren't enough people densely populated on the outer limits of the city/metro area, building an expansive and fast public transit system is simply not financially feasible. Thus, cars are a necessity. As the previous poster said, this isn't likely to happen in 15 years. The technology and infrastructure required to compensate for a lower car ownership rate is simply not there in the vast majority of cities at the moment.

Place like Tokyo, Singapore and Soeul are extremely densely populated as a matter of necessity (lack of space) and are relatively new, modern cities that benefitted from being able to (re-)build during a time of technological advancement.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

You don't have ANYTHING to worry about in YOUR lifetime.

These "estimates" are extremely wide based estimates on what THEY think will happen.

Some past vehicular history:

*The seat belt was invented in 1959 and estimated to save thousands of lives in accidents back then, but the public bawked at it and the lawmakers snubbed it.
The seat belt was not commonly made into vehicles until the late 1960's and early 1970's.
The seat belt was NOT made into law until 1984. Thats about 25 years.

*The electric car was invented in 1828. The first American electric car was designed in 1890. In 1895 Americans started paying attention to electrically driven machines, including the electric car.
Hybrid vehicles were designed around 1899/1900.
The electric vehicle was a novelty and a "flash in the pan", and soon died out and made way for the already developed all gas engine.
The first fully functioning modern electric vehicle, the Prius, was sold in Japan starting in 1997.
By 2011 all vehicle makers have some sort of basic electric or hybrid vehicle on the market, but not many sales.
By 2014, electric vehicles are only STARTING to become popular, after being on the market for 17 years.
That is OVER 100 years for a functioning electric car to become "commonplace" on the vehicle market. But still has not become commonplace in Americas driveways and garages.

*ABS brakes were developed for aircraft in 1929, and were not made on road vehicles until 1978. Thats almost 50 years before ABS brakes were made commonplace in almost all vehicles.



There are WAY too many factors to include in self driven vehicles, factors that these people obviously do not want you to know about.

This article is SPECULATIVE HYPE and NOTHING MORE!



Facts of Self driven vehicles:

* The computer programs to operate such self driven vehicles are only in the planning stages at this point. There are BILLIONS of calculations PER SECOND a program of this type must use, in order to SAFELY transport something from point A to point B without any altercations or accidents. It will take AT LEAST 20 more years of programming and testing BEFORE any such program can be made into any commonplace vehicle.

*The roads, streets, alleys, highways, and byways ALL over the country will have to be either redesigned and rebuilt or have sensors placed in millions of spots all over the country.......and this could take 25 years alone, if not more. Which would also increase the workforce for such a program.

*People haven't even gotten used to electric vehicles yet. What makes these idiots think anyone is going to trust a freeking computer program with their lives at this point?

*For any society to be "used" to something as commonplace, a generation of people have to be born into it. All of the people being born from this point forward will be used to the electric car, as it has been a part of their existence on this planet since they were born....so they wont think twice about the concept of an electric vehicle. As for self driven vehicles, the same will have to happen for it to become commonplace in society.
And that is at least 100 years away!



And even the fact that "flying cars" have been expected to be the commonplace vehicle in American society since the late 1940's in science fiction.........it has yet to come to pass, even though the flying car has been in existence since 1949.....it is STILL something people have not grasped yet, much less put stock into for becoming reality, as science fiction has always stipulated.




There are TOO many variables and factors that have to be considered for this program to work. And so far, they haven't gotten ANY of it figured out.


And aside from all of these issues I have pointed out, and many I have not included......

There is still the HARD FACT that these companies will have the oil companies to deal with. You think they are just going to roll over and lose billions of dollars in sales of gas and oil to gas guzzling vehicles for these electric, self driven vehicles? I think not.
The oil companies have the means and the legal power to keep these self driving vehicle companies in stalemate for years, and years, and years, and years, and years.......

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

Here is an interesting video explaining how the economy as a whole (including driving jobs) will become automated, threatening human jobs.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

Same here.

The general population doesn't trust technology that much, specially the older generations, who are right now a majority.

... So we'll see what the guy of the article (or people like me) has to say in 2025 about it.

Anyways what is more acceptable for us, morally speaking : An error made by a human driver, or an error made by a human programmer?

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

Somehow I doubt it. We've taken decades, and don't even have high speed rail. Many of the commuter trains running up and down the Boston to DC line are running on 100 year old tracks, and 100 year old speeds.

Also, Americans love to drive. They're addicted to cars, and like the way they feel. I can't see too many people clamoring for those gussied-up Uber-Dalek-mobiles any time soon.

Plus, the auto, oil and many other industries will put up a huge fight; I can't see congress ever being able to let this happen, given they can barely pass any significant bills.

Also, most people still need cars to get to work, and I don't see this changing...renting these driver-less cars might work in a select few cities, but many people drive 30 minutes, an hour, or more, and to places it's unlikely Uber will be able to set up adequate service. If we haven't been able to do mass trans yet, I don't see this as a viable, affordable solution.

I'm skeptical.

Also: What about those who can't afford this? Where's the part where the growing income inequality gap is closed, such that this is even affordable to enough people? This guy has clearly drank the Google-Glass/Silicon Valley Kool-Aid.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

I sure hope so.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

I don't think it would be adopted that quickly by the general public. I think things like taxi companies will take advantage fairly quickly since it would remove a huge part of their cost. Same goes for long haul trucks. However I could see even that being slowed down by legislation. I don't anyone is prepared for the levels of automation that's about to occur. Many argue Labour Unions are outdated.. but I think their next big battle is right around the corner. And I'm pretty sure they'll lose.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

First thing that went through my head: loss of control, choice, and freedom.

I don't see getting there that soon. They haven't even been able to pull off a car for the mass market that can go a respectable distance, say 300 to 400 miles, without having to be plugged in ... unless they're keeping it hidden or I'm not a good sleuth. This will also hurt rural areas and push more people into cities and away from more remote areas, where they may be very happy living.

I do welcome some advances, though. We've all seen the turn signals also included in side mirrors, blind spot and next lane warnings in the dashboard which mostly the driver can see and hear, and the rear back-up camera in the dash. A really cool one is "forward collision alert." It's a little sensitive in warning you, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

I'd actually like to use public transit more, myself. Operating a vehicle and putting a lot of miles on it really adds up and hits a person in the wallet.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

Ten years is probably overly ambitious, but self-driving cars are here and regular cars' days as the main method of transport are numbered.\

I'm not sure it will replace ALL currently driven vehicles, as such like semi trucks still require occasional creativity to maneuver. But maybe their challenges will be taken on by computers also.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

I don't think this will catch on.

Because as has already been said, people (not just Americans) like driving.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

That is the X factor, I think. Although I personally see driving mostly as a chore and would gladly give it up to a capable robot, we do love our cars. Even as technologically optimistic as I am, I don't see manual cars ever going away completely, just eventually being relegated to the tasks of recreation and racing.

But MisterSparkles, all that bluster about sensors and programming and redesigning roads, I think you're completely wrong. Not only would I agree with self-driving cars being a pipe dream if all that were necessary, but none of it is. They exist. Today, on regular roads. I'm not sure I trust them enough yet to drive everywhere, but they have been extensively tested and will soon be ready for production. Whether that means soon after there will be a push for banning humans from driving, that's still sci-fi. But it's not impossible.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

They better have really good operating systems, say, something better than windows. Also, I imagine they'd be prone to getting viruses, mal-ware and you'd have no privacy...you'd never be able to go anywhere, without somebody having a record. No need for spy-ware, I guess.

Ransom-ware would be interesting, seeing the dash light up and say,"OK, pay 500 bit-coins, or you're going over a cliff!"

I can see a LOT of problems.

Plus, I think Uber is a horrible company, draining $$$ to the hands of the 1%, and not really creating any decent jobs, just tossing out a few scraps relative to company profits.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

Where I live I see Google's self-driving cars on a daily basis. They've driven thousands of miles thus far with a much better safety performance than human-only drivers, and they have the potential to be a lot safer than human drivers because they don't get tired, drunk, high, distracted by a hot guy on the sidewalk, etc, and they have the ability to pay attention to several things at once and react in milliseconds instead of seconds. It's not like this is uncharted territory either. Airplanes have been able to land themselves (with programming from the pilots) for over a half century.

There are some issues to work out, and ten years is quick, but I'd be very surprised if commercial self-driving cars don't become ubiquitous during my lifetime.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

While I do see the technology going there, all it takes is for a highly publicized, horrifically tragic accident for people to lose their confidence, especially if it's promoted as completely error-free. At the very least, I think most people will want cars with manual overrides.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

I want control of what I am riding in if it's just me. God forbid ISIS or terrorists hack in to the self-driving system and makes us all crash and die.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

First, before we get the self-driving car, I want the car the 1950s books promised that can fly. I think that was supposed to be available by now.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

I could see it happening fairly quickly in a few big cities (London, Hong Kong, New York, Tokyo, etc.) where driving/parking is really difficult, as an alternative to public transit and especially as a cheaper alternative to taxis or owning your own car. I could even foresee a point when the use of private/human controlled cars might be restricted in many densely populated cities. However, I don't see them completely replacing human-operated vehicles everywhere any time soon.

 

Re: 90% of cars will be sel-driving in 10 years... With staggering effects on the eco

Very interesting how you mention "taking with it a whole bunch of industries and jobs" but didn't mention "generating a whole bunch of industries and jobs", because that is exactly what will happen (likely). Some jobs vanish, others arise. =)