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How many countries do you think will legalize same-sex marriage in your lifetime?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by SubZero, Jan 1, 2016.

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How many countries do you think will legalize same-sex marriage in your lifetime?

  1. No more. 21 and that's final!

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 22-29

    8 vote(s)
    24.2%
  3. 30-34

    8 vote(s)
    24.2%
  4. 35-39

    2 vote(s)
    6.1%
  5. 40+

    15 vote(s)
    45.5%
  1. SubZero

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    Over the course of 15 years, we have witnessed 21 countries legalize same-sex marriage. There are several other countries that allow civil unions for gay couples (just not marriage).

    I'm very curious what you think: Assuming you live a full life, how many countries do you think will have legalized same-sex marriage? Not just civil unions, but actual marriage.
     
  2. Plattyrex

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    All of them.
     
  3. VideoGAYmer

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    Hopefully all of them will though I seriously doubt that.

    It's leagal where I live/hope to live so I'm happy.

    ---------- Post added 2nd Jan 2016 at 03:40 AM ----------

    Ninja'd
     
  4. SubZero

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    As much as I hope that would be true, I'd doubt it. Maybe PAST our lifetimes, like centuries into the future.

    Like the countries where you can be killed for being gay currently....we're not quite there yet.
     
  5. Daydreamer1

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    I'm cynical, and I doubt marriage equality will be a world-wide thing until a long time after I'm dead and gone, assuming I kick the bucket as an old man. It will be a miracle if that's the case, but I wouldn't be shocked if the more conservative and bigoted of countries don't full on show support for another century.
     
  6. Aussie792

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    I don't want to hazard too uneducated a guess about the exact number of countries and the timeframe involved for the entire world, but I imagine it will easily reach over 40 countries by the time I'm middle aged, let alone by the end of my life. Worldwide marriage equality is almost unthinkable.

    I think that the German-speaking countries won't take more than two decades (Switzerland will be the last, I think) and that Australia will introduce it before the next decade. It's to be expected in Nepal and Italy, wouldn't be unlikely in Israel and I think most of Central Europe and many Balkan states are likely to shift in favour by the end of century at the very latest. Poland I'm less certain about, but I imagine there will be room for change by the time my life is over. I believe it will be overwhelmingly present in South America (where 60% of the region's population already has same-sex marriage and a further 20% has civil unions) and Central America by the middle of the century. I am concerned about Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, Suriname, Bolivia, Paraguay and especially Guyana, but their attitudes are likely to be shaped significantly by their region's increasing liberalism throughout my lifetime.

    Sometimes it's hard to tell. Much of Africa is more conservative than it has been historically and I don't see significant expansion of marriage rights in most of the continent. East Asian laws tend to be less brutally homophobic, but I still don't see an enormous amount of determined popular support in the region, not in comparison to Europe, the Americas and Oceania.

    That could easily change, though. Fifty years ago, it would have been unthinkable that there would be a popular majority in support of same-sex marriage anywhere. And, as in Nepal, South Africa and the Iberian countries, traditionally closed societies sometimes liberalise upon a regime change or give rise to a new liberal generation, in reaction to the state's previous repression.

    It's depressing to see a map of the world as it is with so many countries hostile to LGBT rights, but there is a great deal of potential for the expansion of marriage and other rights.
     
  7. Skaros

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    I don't expect the number to rise by much more.

    I can definitely see a few more Latin American and European countries to legalize it (and Australia and POSSIBLY 1 or 2 Asian countries such as Japan and the Philippines). Mexico will definitely fully legalize same-sex marriage soon. They're on the verge of it and their Supreme Court is completely on the pro-equality side, so since a lot of the marriage there is being legalized through the courts it will definitely be officially legal in all the Mexican states soon.

    I'd say a few more European countries will also legalize same-sex marriage, such as Germany and Italy.

    However, I don't see much more progress in the rest of the world. Most parts of Africa and the Middle East and Asia (with a few exceptions in Asia) are very socially conservative by their culture, so their wouldn't be much progress... at least in our lifetimes.

    All and all, maybe 10-20 more countries in our lifetimes? No more than 30 more.
     
    #7 Skaros, Jan 1, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2016
  8. Andrew99

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  9. Van

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    I don't know how many countries will legalize same-sex marriage in my lifetime (I voted 40+), but a couple of years ago (when there were just about 12 countries or something that had marriage equality) I told some friends that by 2020 there will be at least 50 countries that will have marriage equality. I still think that's possible. :thumbsup:
     
  10. SkyDiver

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    Well, New Zealand was the first to grant women the right to vote in the year 1893... and here we are in 2015 and Saudi Arabia has only JUST granted it. 122 years.

    The first country to legalize same-sex marriage was the Netherlands in 2001, so if the timelines end up being similar we're looking at (likely) universal same-sex marriage by 2123.
     
  11. iamdesperate

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    as someone who has not a lot info on lgbt news, lets say with the help of technology i lived until 2085, which makes 69 years (yeap we're in 2016, get used to it), and it is open to discussion in ten countries which would accept it in like 10-15 years, we have 10 in the pocket. South America may ope up more and more, while places like china may also crash the homophobia, and secular islamic contries may open it up to discussion in 30 years. if lgbt movement gets worldwide protests, if people achieve that, in 50 years, we may accep 30 more countries to legalize same-sex marriage, along 20-25 more contries to abolish anti- lgbt laws. my guess would be until the end of this decade, unless west doesnt collapse, 50 more countries would legalize same-sex marriage.
     
  12. ForNarnia

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    I plan to live forever, so all of them :slight_smile: (anyone catch that reference?)
     
  13. Andrew99

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    I think I did :wink:
     
  14. GeeLee

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    [​IMG]

    I think I did anyway.

    I'd be stunned if Asia doesn't have at least one country with equal marriage by the end of the year (Crystal ball says Taiwan or Japan, maybe Nepal as a dark horse).

    I think the Germans will join the rest of Europe and Italy will be forced to offer something too, even if it does mean picking a fight with the Vatican.

    In Latin America I think Mexico is a matter of when at this point, you could see the start of discussions in Cuba too.

    Africa, wait I just need to get a selfie with me and this flying pig.

    As a side point, there's something about Obergefell that just makes it feel more tenuous than it should be. It doesn't feel like we've seen the full fury of the backlash yet. I don't think it'll be repealed (Arbroath winning the Champions League is more likely) but I think you'll see a lot more chipping away at it through RFRAs and the like.
     
    #14 GeeLee, Jan 2, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2016