As many of us know, the US presidential race has gotten pretty intense. Scalia's death, Trump's and Cruz's attacks on other candidates, Hillary's email scandal, Bernie's far left promises, etc. etc. I decided to look at polls from various states, as well as how states voted historically, and compared the top candidates 1 on 1 to see who would win in toss-up states. I didn't compare all candidates: Only Trump, Cruz, Sanders, and Clinton. Here is the original map. The map where I'm sure everyone can agree lists all the safe and toss-up states. http://i.imgur.com/AVNotN5.png Here is the map where, according to prior elections and general shifting views of the state and polls, I consider these to be safe states for candidates. Yes, Democrats will probably win many of these states. Some maps I've looked at even considered states like New Mexico, Michigan, and Wisconsin to be safe states for Democrats. Hillary and Bernie are both dominating in Wisconsin polls against Republicans, so it's not doubt Dems will get those. Michigan has typically always voted blue in general elections, and New Mexico is at a point where it's now basically a blue state. Pennsylvania, although considered a toss-up state, has voted blue in the past several consecutive elections and with rather safe margins. I can't imagine them going red. Nevada is tricky, but they too are at a point where Democrats typically win in general elections. Democrats will lose North Carolina as it's shifting more to the right ideologically and in a tight race like this, I can't imagine it going blue. http://i.imgur.com/EcgiZvb.png This is the map where I looked a little more in depth with how candidates are polling. I took even more things into consideration, but I admit how shaky my reasoning for these results are. I think Republicans will win Ohio. Their convention is being held there and I'm sure Kasich probably boosted the Republican support in the state. Ohio has historically been a very very narrow swing state. Even the convention alone is enough to make me say "screw it, they won." I don't expect to win Colorado either, but I consider it possible that Dems will win. I only put it as red because I didn't want to feel like I'm giving Dems too much advantage. Actually, I think Colorado is impossible to determine at this moment. Dems may win Virginia. I looked at polls and the fact that the state has shifted a little more to the left ideologically. Florida seems to also be a very close call, but I'm getting the feeling that Republicans will inch their way to gaining that state. It's too hard to tell right now, but I do see a right leaning advantage. Polls show a back and forth between candidates. http://i.imgur.com/68EAcge.png If I'm correct, I predict a Democratic win of 270-268. Of course, anything can change from now till November. I mostly did this map out of boredom and the hopes that I could spark a nice discussion. What's your opinions of this election? Do you think the maps are relivately accurate? What would you change?
This is how I imagine Hillary or Bernie would do vs. Trump, give or take a few votes. 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map Hillary/Bernie vs. Cruz 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map Hillary/Bernie vs. Rubio 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map My maps rely heavily on the Blue Wall Theory
As a political junkie, I think if Trump's the nominee, you'll see a Reagan landslide. He is bringing the Reagan Democrats to the Republican side. Personally, with a Socialist like Bernie or someone with baggage like Hillary, even the moderates will look at Trump. Even some traditional blue states might go red. States like New York, Connecticut and Ohio. Now, if the GOP establishment (the liberal leaders who hates the right.) get some loser (Jeb Bush) and Trump goes third party, who knows what will happen. Too bad I can't vote yet, but Ill be campaigning for either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, and to campaign for my bf's mom, who is running for state house.
I still can't believe Trump is being taken seriously as a presidential candidate! It's insane! The guy has no experience in government whatsoever, offers only vague superlative promises to "make America great again" and that "we'll be winning so much you'll get tired of winning" but gives no specifics on how he'll accomplish these great feats of awesomeness. I can't believe that the general American electorate will be hornswoggled by his nonsense.
No.... polls show Clinton and Bernie would kill Trump. 60% of Americans hate him. He might draw in some moderates, but he makes many Republicans and Democrats puke. ---------- Post added 18th Feb 2016 at 09:10 PM ---------- I've looked into this a little more. I honestly think Rubio stands the best chance against a Democrat. I think he's the most electable and actually would win the general election. Although, let's hope Trump goes third party and splits the vote. That would be a blessing!
We all seem to be forgetting Kasich here! When it comes to the crunch Clinton and Kasich have the best track records for actually doing stuff. Sander's history on gay rights is quite sketchy, his gun control is wobbly, his now exposed connections to the IRA and the fact that against Hillary he has the quite notable disadvantage of having a penis. Sanders would lose to Kasich, Bush or Cruz, if it came to Kasich vs. Clinton we would have one of the best election battles in history.
I don't see why you think Sanders's history on gay rights is shetchy... he supported gay marriage back in the 90's when most people were against it (even Hillary!). He was also one of the few people to argue against DOMA and DODT (also supported by Hillary). Also, there's no way Sanders would lose to Kasich. You should be more worried about Rubio. Several polls show Sanders might even be more electable than Hillary, but you should know that he pretty much beats every Republican one on one. Furthermore, Kasich doesn't have enough momentum to actually get the nomination. I think we can safely say the Republican candidacy comes down to three people: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. You're right about the penis though. Some of Hillary's supporters seem to only be voting for Hillary because she's a woman.
2016 Presidential Election Polls Here we go. Yea, Bernie beats the Republicans but Hillary loses to them. Unbiased website and polls.
I'm not saying that general election polls that are out aren't important, but you guys should remember that the general campaign still has to take place and there are lots of people, independents mainly, who haven't made up their mind yet. So those polls showing nominee A beating nominee B should be read with caution.
Here's my projection if Hillary Clinton is the nominee: If Sanders is the nominee: If Sanders is the nominee and Mike Bloomberg gets in: Bernie Sanders' campaign is looking like a perfect repeat of George McGovern in 1972. Potheads, hippies, and college students revolted against Maine Senator Edmund Muskie, who was the most formidable challenger to Richard Nixon, and replaced him with a radical lefty whose platform was described by the three A's: Abortion, Amnesty, and Acid. The result:
Bernie is doing really well in polling for swing states and plus... Bernie does a better job against Republican candidates than Hillary. 2016 Presidential Election Polls ---------- Post added 19th Feb 2016 at 05:10 PM ---------- Most certainly. It's early, yes, but I think it's safe to say Bernie and Hillary are both fairly electable.
