Iowa Caucuses

[Nodnarb]

The first real contest of the 2012 Republican Primaries is tomorrow (Tuesday) night, here in Iowa. It's been a strange, crazy process to get to where we are now. I believe six different candidates led in the polls at some point along the way. I'm personally looking forward to the constant political ads on TV ending, at least until things pick up again in the General.

The latest polls make it look like a three-way race between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Nate Silver is projecting Romney to win with just 21.8% of the vote, with Ron Paul finishing second with 21%. Santorum has the momentum right now, going from being stuck in the single digits to one of the front-runners in the last week.

My own predictions:

1st: Rick Santorum - 25%
2nd: Mitt Romney - 23%
3rd: Ron Paul - 21%
4th: Newt Gingrich - 12%
5th: Rick Perry - 10%
6th: Michele Bachmann - 6%
7th: Jon Huntsman - 3%

Santorum has the momentum right now, and will be able to bring in a lot of the social conservative vote. He's also getting a lot more attention right now, and the others don't have time to stop that momentum with attack ads (as they did when Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Paul all took turns as the favorite). The "anti-Romney" voters have been desperately searching for somebody to give their votes to, and I think they'll settle on Santorum. I don't think Santorum has much of a chance at the nomination, though. He doesn't have the money or campaign infrastructure that the top tier candidates have, and has very limited appeal. His numbers outside of Iowa aren't good, and once the other candidates start attacking him, most of the momentum he would get from winning Iowa would disappear.

Huntsman has no chance for a decent showing, and hasn't really campaigned here at all. Bachmann's campaign hit its high point with her Ames Straw Poll win, but it's in complete disarray right now. Expect her to drop out after the caucuses. Perry is struggling right now, but I think he'll stick things out even with a bad showing in Iowa. But I think the "Santorum Surge" is a huge blow to what little shot he still had at the nomination. Gingrich has cratered after getting over 30% in some polls a few weeks ago, but I think he'll survive Iowa as well. If he turns his campaign around, he might Romney's biggest challenger.

Ron Paul spent a week or two as the big name, and just a few days ago I thought he would win. But it looks like he has lost his momentum and has lost favor with the "not-Romney" voters. He does have a lot of extremely passionate supporters, and could potentially pull off the upset. Nate still gives him a 34% chance of winning. We were told the same thing back in 2008, though, and he didn't have a great showing then. So we will see. Outside of a huge upset by Gingrich/Bachmann/Perry, Paul winning would be by far the most interesting possible result. The Romney/Paul battle in New Hampshire would get really ugly.

Romney has just kind of hung around, and only started campaigning here in the past month. I don't think I've met anybody who actually wants to vote for him. They just can't stand the rest of the candidates running, and view him as the most electable in the General. If Romney wins Iowa, I don't seem him losing the nomination (without some huge scandal that ruins his campaign).

All that said...so much can change so quickly that you really can't be confident in any predictions. Should be an interesting night (for those of us that like to follow politics, at least).

[Alexandria]

As an observing Canadian, all I can say is they all appear to be only slightly different shades of insane. Canadian politics is peaceful and sensible compared to this crowd.

[steel03]

I'm a lot less sick of the political ads than I am of the entire world painting my moderate, left-leaning state BRIGHT RED.
(In other words: Iowa Nice - YouTube)

[Kidd]

I think Romney is going to win it, with Ron Paul a close second and Santorum a distant third.

[Hexagon]

Originally Posted by Alexandria

all I can say is they all appear to be only slightly different shades of insane.

Exactly! Although I do find US politics to be rather amusing at times. When its not tragic.

[Nodnarb]

Originally Posted by steel03

I'm a lot less sick of the political ads than I am of the entire world painting my moderate, left-leaning state BRIGHT RED.
(In other words: Iowa Nice - YouTube)

I was just going to post that! And I totally agree. Glad it's almost over.