Iowa Caucus

[Robert]

With 2 hours before the Republican Primaries are kicked off in Iowa, I thought it was about time we had a quick poll on who we think will win it. Just a bit of fun.

Who do you think will win it, who is your favourite out of the candidates, who has the best chance of beating Obama and what is your favourite part of the drama that has unfolded so far?

The Final Debate:

+ YouTube Video

This is my favourite advert of the whole election so far - imagine Obama having to answer to it!:

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[Echidna1]

I don't even know who Huntsman is.

[kiersten]

Im not American, so Im not sure if I should chime in or have an opinion on all of this, not to mention the fact that I dont really have a firm grasp on how American politics works anyway...

[Nodnarb]

I'm thinking Santorum's momentum carries him to a win tonight. The social conservatives and not-Romneys are going to move from the bottom-tier candidates (Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich) and vote for him instead.

[lostinthought9]

I'm honestly not sure who's going to win the caucus tonight, so I just voted Romney. I think he'll be the likely nominee, and have the greatest chance against Obama.

[Beertruck]

Where's RedState when you need him?!?

[Hexagon]

Mitt Romney. But I hope Obama wins in November.

[Nodnarb]

Entrance polls looking good for Ron Paul...hard to say how reliable they are.

[starfish]

Originally Posted by kiersten

not to mention the fact that I dont really have a firm grasp on how American politics works anyway...

That's ok. The guys running don't either.

Thank you Thank You. I'll be here all week. Remember to tip your waitress.

[RedState]

Originally Posted by Beertruck

Where's RedState when you need him?!?

Never fear...I'm never very far

I have always found the caucus system fascinating...in a way I wish they would simply switch to a straight primary system...but this is one of those traditions.

I have also found the circus that accompanies this event rather interesting...never will you see so much attention paid to something that..in the end...will really not matter much..at least from an actual delegate standpoint. The Iowa Caucus really doesn't have the best track record when it comes to choosing the GOP nominee (I think only 2 or 3 in the past 30 or years have won Iowa and gone on to win the nomination)....as a matter of fact, for all you Democrats out there, it was actually Jimmy Carter that put the Iowa Caucus system on the political map. Until 1979, no one paid it any attention at all.

As far as who will win...who knows. In Iowa, you can be a democrat and register as a republican that night and vote in the GOP caucus...so it is really difficult to gage the actual support any one candidate may have.

Santorum it seems hasn't left the state in months. The boy has worked hard, I will hand that to him...and I think he will finish in the top 3...maybe even 1st. But, should he win, I think he should enjoy this victory while it lasts...because I think this will be one of the only ones. There are a ton of social conservatives in Iowa, and Sen. Santorum appeals to them.

Romney has the money, and evidently has been running a stealth organization that went into action really fast.

Speaker Gingrich, even though I like him, seems to have problems pressing nouns against verbs and having them explode in his face. He has been destroyed by harsh attack ads, and his whining response to them.

Ron Paul, and his die hard supporters, are a little odd I think...kinda like modern day hippies. But, he has a devout following that will certainly turn out.

I doubt if Perry, Bachmann and whoever else will have much of an impact. The top 3, in no particular order, Romney, Santorum, Paul.

[Nodnarb]

With 12% of vote in:

Ron Paul 24%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rick Santorum 23%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Perry 10%
Michele Bachmann 6%
Jon Huntsman 1%

Ron Paul with a decent lead in Polk County (Des Moines) 28-22 over Mittens. Nothing in from Story County (Ames) yet, and that is one of Paul's best counties. Things are looking good for his chances tonight.

---------- Post added 3rd Jan 2012 at 08:31 PM ----------

22% reporting, and only 57 votes separate Mittens, Santorum, and Paul.

[Nodnarb]

Just under 50% reporting, Santorum in the lead and Romney close behind. They look like they may be separating themselves from Paul a bit. But still nothing from Jefferson and Story Counties, which will likely go big for Paul.

[Shevanel]

Originally Posted by Echidna1

I don't even know who Huntsman is.

And it's a damn shame many others don't either =/

[ANightDude]

Originally Posted by Shevanel

And it's a damn shame many others don't either =/

He's actually been one of my favorites since I saw him on Piers Morgan.

Granted, my opinion doesn't matter. I just see this as an extended MTV show.

[Nodnarb]

Ton of votes coming in all the sudden. With 88% reporting, it's going to be close between Mittens and Santorum.

---------- Post added 3rd Jan 2012 at 10:15 PM ----------

Looking like its going to come down to Ames/Story County. I think Romney is going to hold on to his lead.

[steel03]

Wasn't there already a thread about this? Right now the counties with less than 70% reporting are Franklin, Harrison, Monona, Shelby, and Story. Franklin seems to favor Paul, Monona, Shelby, and Harrison will all probably favor Santorum, and Story will favor Romney. It's interesting that the counties with big cities are almost all going to Romney: Polk and Dallas for Des Moines, Linn for Cedar Rapids, Scott for Davenport, Johnson for Iowa City, Pottawattamie for Council Bluffs, Story for Ames, and Dubuque for Dubuque. Sioux City is unsurprisingly going for Santorum and Waterloo is going for Paul, but other than that it's all the big cities.

[Nodnarb]

My predictions from the thread I started last night:

Originally Posted by Nodnarb

1st: Rick Santorum - 25%
2nd: Mitt Romney - 23%
3rd: Ron Paul - 21%
4th: Newt Gingrich - 12%
5th: Rick Perry - 10%
6th: Michele Bachmann - 6%
7th: Jon Huntsman - 3%

Looks like things will end up very close to what I expected.

Things are too close to call right now, though. Looking at the votes left to be reported in Dubuque and Story Counties, Romney may have enough votes to catch up and pass Santorum. Depends on whether he can keep up his margins in both those counties.

[Nodnarb]

I expected it to be close, but wow.

I think Santorum is going to win by between 10 or 20 votes out of 120,000. Incredible.

Sounds like Perry might be dropping out after an awful performance tonight.

[steel03]

Honestly I'm just glad Ron Paul didn't win. I've never seen a tie at the caucuses before, though. That's amazing.

[Shevanel]

Originally Posted by steel03

Honestly I'm just glad Ron Paul didn't win. I've never seen a tie at the caucuses before, though. That's amazing.

How is Santorum better? =/