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The next decade for Gay Marriage

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by silkfrog1292, May 4, 2013.

  1. silkfrog1292

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    Hi,

    The past decade have seen huge strides of progress in LGBT equality, with various countries legalizing or partially legalizing same sex marriages. In the US alone 5 states have legalized same sex marriage in the past three years.

    What I want to ask you guys is, what do you predict would be the trends in the next decade? Would same sex marriage be legalized federally in the US in the near future or do you think it would have to be done state by state? Do you think same sex marriage would continue to be concentrated in Europe and the Americas, or do you think it would spread to other Continents?
     
  2. Miz Purple

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    i think we will see some more states maybe another 5-10 , but there are alot of red states that i dont see legalizing it in my life time,as far the world i deff see europe growing in equality,these last couple of months have been very exciting.
     
  3. Sully

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    Well in Australia our current government is against it and the next government opposes it as well. So for at least the next term of government it's probably not going to happen.
     
  4. silkfrog1292

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    I read in the news that some independent MPs are proposing holding a referendum for allowing same sex marriage. If we can somehow push that through then we can override those two fossilized bigots (well, one fossilized bigot and one boneless panderer) and legalise it. I hear that support for same sex marriage is quite high now in Aus.
     
  5. Gaysibling

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    Outside of Europe and the Americas I think the spread will be fairly limited.

    I can't see any other countries in Africa joining South Africa ( with the possible exception of Mauritius towards the end of the time frame ... and even then I would rate it as an outside chance ...although they are really an Asian country off the African coast rather than an African country).

    In the Asia Pacific region I would think Taiwan is a strong candidate and possibly Thailand as well. The PRC could be interesting, never rule anything out with them. Bhutan and Nepal could pleasantly surprise us too, both countries have been lucky enough to escape the twin plagues of christianity and islam. The other possibilities, in the wake of France would be French Polynesia and New Caledonia. The current law change in France does not apply there as they are not Départements, but it would not be beyond the realms of possibility for it to be adopted in some form or another later.

    ---------- Post added 4th May 2013 at 10:34 PM ----------

    I have seen estimates that approx. 64 % of the population support Marriage Equality... pity the politicians in Australia on both sides are such cowards.
     
  6. silkfrog1292

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    I agree that Africa is mostly out of the question, especially with sub-Saharan Africa experience a religious revival right now and all scrambling to enact punitive laws against Homosexuality. That said though, I somehow have a sneaking suspicion that Namibia might surprise us, though probably not in this decade.

    As for the Asia Pacific region, I agree that Thailand and Vietnam would probably be the first two countries that will legalize gay marriage, with Nepal and Bhutan likely candidates as well. Though for the Taiwan and the PRC, I for one know that for both countries a Bill legalizing same sex marriage had been on stay since 2003 (it was rejected from being debated again in the case of PRC in 2011). Unless there is a major change of heart in the government I don't think they would bring up the issue any time soon. Though you are right in the sense that both countries have an increasingly visible gay community and rising levels of acceptance.

    French Polynesia and New Caledonia....I don't really know, the influence of the Catholic Church there is much stronger than in mainland France though....

    Finally, Australia would've legalized same sex marriage long ago if not for that spineless bitch that bears the name of Julia Gillard. I honestly don't understand how she can live with denying us equal rights, face crushing defeat in the coming election and going down in history as one of the most hated PM our country has ever known. just....UGH!:tantrum:
     
    #6 silkfrog1292, May 4, 2013
    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  7. Sully

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    Very right you are! With the upcoming election who is the lesser of two evils?!
     
  8. silkfrog1292

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    I plan on not voting. I'm too lazy to drag myself to the Australian Consulate to vote for which idiot I want to drag Australia back into the 19th century. :badgrin:
     
  9. Ridiculous

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    You've got more than two parties don't you?
     
  10. Hexagon

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    I think gay marriage will be quite successful in the next 10 years. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my part, but perhaps not. We're starting to get the first signs of conservative governments supporting gay marriage, which basically means its becoming a mainstream position that you don't have to be progressive to support. As much as I hate the conservative government in my country, at least they passed gay marriage.
     
  11. Sully

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    Yes there are other parties, but there's only 2 that stand a chance of being elected.
     
  12. Ridiculous

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    But your government is formed by proportion of votes, isn't it? According to Wikipedia your House of Representatives has members from 9 separate parties.
     
  13. Foxface

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    well my own state of Illinois looks primed and ready to make it so...it's past one chamber and on to the second

    I see a continued steady increase in states recognizing....hopefully this will get the fed talking. I would hope by the end of Obama's term, it will be federal

    we will see

    Foxface
     
  14. BryanM

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    I see some states are close to legalizing it this year. I say by 2016 another 4 or 5 will have legalized it, if not more, plus other states will put it on a ballot measure.. DOMA and Prop 8 seem that they will get shot down by SCOTUS, which is another state in CA that would have it legalized. By 2020, who knows what will happen? It would be awesome if we could get a nationwide vote for equality in either 2016 or 2020, but I think they will leave it up to the states individually in the near future.
     
  15. Gaysibling

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    Sorry, I should have added Australia to my Asia Pacific list. In spite of the current arseholes on both sides of the house I believe public opinion will force it... and I predict that because the brakes have been stuck on for so long, when Abbott and Gillard get out of the way it will move VERY quickly.
     
  16. Aussie792

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    Bad idea for a referendum; almost all fail, and it'll knock equality back by a few decades, as all it does is give bigots massive media attention, allowing them to spew even more lies about LGBT people. I think that same-sex marriage will occur in the Americas and Europe during the next few decades, for the most part, as most of Oceania, Africa and Asia (excluding Turkey and Japan, which have a possibility) aren't exactly progressive enough for it to happen in the next decade.
     
  17. Rakkaus

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    I don't see marriage equality expanding much outside of Europe and culturally-European territories like Australia, New Zealand, U.S.A.

    In the U.S., the only way it could come to all 50 states for the foreseeable future would be by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling. In the meantime, probably every Northeastern state will have marriage equality very shortly (we already have all 6 New England states plus New York, Maryland, and Delaware), New Jersey will hold things up because it has a fat bastard of a governor who wants to run for president in his homophobic party. (Pa. probably won't have equality anytime soon either, but I don't consider it really Northeastern politically)

    Within a few years every West Coast state will follow; we already have Washington; California will probably get marriage equality from the SCOTUS at the very least. Oregon is the wild card there, it's supposedly a liberal state, yet passed an anti-gay marriage amendment with 57% in 2004 and also rejected legal marijuana last year.


    Outside the Northeast/West Coast, it's going to be tough to expand much. I'd say Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado are the most likely "flyover" states to legalize marriage equality in the next few years, with an outside chance in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. (All of these states have anti-equality marriage amendments except Illinois and Minnesota). New Mexico is the only state which has no laws at all dealing with same-sex marriage, so maybe that's another wild card to watch.

    I don't believe the polls that say we could win in states like Ohio, especially once the big money hate machine starts rolling and spreads lies and fearmongering about gay sex being taught in kindergarten if marriage equality is legalized.

    The South is pretty much a lost cause without a court ruling. Even North Carolina, supposedly one of the more liberal "New South" states that Obama was able to win, voted over 60% to constitutionally ban equality just last year. If we ever were to make any progress in the South legislatively, it would probably be in a border state with a lot of Northern transplants like Virginia or Florida (or maybe even NC at some point if Yankees continue to move down there and old Southern conservatives die off), but I'm talking at least a decade out in these cases. That's why we really need a SCOTUS ruling to spread equality nationwide. Deep South states like Alabama and Mississippi would likely not legalize marriage equality for at least 50 years (probably never) without being forced to by the courts, just like they had to be forced to stop slavery by war and forced to grant civil rights to African-Americans by Supreme Court rulings and federal legislation. Mississippi only just ratified the amendment banning slavery this year! :eek:
     
  18. Pret Allez

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    I couldn't care any less what happens with gay marriage. I'm a lot more interested in employment nondiscrimination and trans* access to health care.
     
  19. Rakkaus

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    Indeed, I don't think it's good to only focus on marriage equality as if were the most important issue for queer equality.

    In many states you can be fired just for being gay or bi; in even more states you can be fired for being trans.

    [​IMG]

    But I'm doing my part here in New York; last week I went to Equality & Justice Day in Albany to demand "GENDA NOW!"

    GENDA of course being the Gender Expression Non-Discrimination Act, so transgender people can be legally protected from discrimination just as gay people are in New York.

    But most states don't even ban discrimination based on sexual orientation. Too bad we can't pass the nationwide ENDA to solve this problem and protect queer people even in backward states.
     
  20. Pret Allez

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    Montana does protect me as a state employee... It just doesn't protect trans* state employees, or any private sector employees at all.

    Part of why I don't care about gay marriage has to do with the fact that marriage only benefits people who are looking to become couples, whereas ENDA would benefit everyone. The caveat is that I don't want ENDA to pass unless transgender people are also protected under it, because we need to have the solidarity to fight with them. I am not at all interested in a repeat of what the labor movement did to people of color or what the feminist movement did to women of color.
     
    #20 Pret Allez, May 4, 2013
    Last edited: May 4, 2013