LGBT News Movement underway to overturn Florida's gay marriage ban

So that makes 2 possible ballot initiatives so far for the 2014 election? Hope a lot more states catch on and do the same, either through the ballot box or state legislature.

 

True, but I guess anything could happen. I mean support for same sex marriage nationally is at 58%, and who knows, maybe Florida's numbers are higher than the national average. Still seems like a tall order though, but I would be thrilled if it passed.

 

One of the issues about putting these out in 2014 is that they're an off year (non-Presidential) election season. The voters who turn out tend to be older in these types of electorate... it's not just how many people who agree, it's how many you can get out to vote.

I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but I'd really have to see their GOTV plans. If they think they can get their people out to support the overturn, then I'd consider it, but if they don't have a robust and strong GOTV plan... then this is a horrible idea.

Right now the movement is sailing on massive momentum. Things seem like they're inevitable. If equal marriage is shot down by the voters in Ohio and Florida, that's going to change the dynamic of things and the media narrative. We want our opposition to remain demoralized - not give them a reason to hope while simultaneously demoralizing ourselves with unnecessary losses.

...and if the media narrative changes from things appearing inevitable this will hurt us in the long run. The more things seem inevitable the more we're going to have people jumping over to our side just because they don't want to seem like they're on the LOSING side of the issue. Smart people want to get out ahead of it, and no one wants to seem like a bigot.

There is a reason the Republican Party right now isn't foaming at the mouth over equal marriage the way they were just a handful of years ago. It's because they feel they are on the losing side of the issue. We want things to continue to seem that way, because it gives us an even greater political space to maneuver and get what we want.

Fundamentally speaking, there is no reason we should be turning to the ballot box. We should be turning to the courts and demanding that they strike down the equal marriage bans in state constitutions. There are pro's and con's when it comes to going to the people like this, but ultimately speaking it validates the fact that the public can deny a minority group rights by voting on it. On the other hand, if it passes it sends a huge message to politicians that continue to oppose us regarding the inevitability of equal marriage - which only goes to feed the already existing media narrative.

---------- Post added 8th Jul 2013 at 10:44 PM ----------

Based on Florida polling data and future projections, if current trends continue....

In 2008 Florida had 40.4% support for equal marriage. That increased to 46.6% in 2012, by 2016 it is expected to be 52.9%, and by 2020 it's expected to be at 59.3% support.

That's only if current trends continue, though. It's possible that they could speed up, stall, or even begin reversing their trend.