General News 4-party politics?

So we're seeing articles everywhere about UKIP's performance in the local elections on Thursday as well as the likelihood of a good performance in the Euro elections, and a very common theme I've noticed in nearly all the analyses I've read is the emergence of an era of 4-party politics in the UK.

*Tl;dr - last para at the bottom*

Doubtless, UKIP has caused massive disruption in the political scene in this election; the knives seem to be sharpening already in the Labour and Lib Dem camps (I read Lib Dem activists have started an E-petition calling for Clegg to be replaced by the summer: Lib Dem local election results suggest party could lose 20 parliamentary seats | Politics | The Guardian, and Miliband has come under fire as well: Local elections 2014: surge by Ukip throws Labour into poll crisis - Telegraph ; Ed Miliband told: raise your game | Politics | The Guardian).

The big question now is whether UKIP will break into Westminster next year. I'm not so sure about this, firstly because the obvious is that under FPTP people will be swayed to vote for a party they think has a reasonable chance of winning and this arguably works against UKIP; people will get to the booth and end up voting Big Three just because their vote will make more of a difference that way. Secondly the local elections and Euro elections especially are seen as a protest vote of sorts, so as many articles have commented what this was really about was the wilful ignorance of immigration as a political issue and reluctance to engage with UKIP by the elite- the electorate registering their discontent with LibLabCon policy rather than voting for UKIP as a serious governing party. Thirdly, now UKIP has the attention of the main 3, they'll probably engage UKIP seriously this time around and try and develop clearer stances on immigration and Europe- this might further take some steam out of the UKIP machine. On that note it's worth noting that their projected national share in local elections actually went down from last year's, and they didn't outright win a single council.

On that basis I don't see UKIP winning more than a seat or two in Westminster next year as very likely, though they will still have the potential to massively disrupt other parties' fortunes. UKIP's policies are broadening, but I think they're still the single-issue, populist, anti-establishment party which is why they're doing so well in the (very) disaffected public mood. They might well get into Westminster at some point, but I can't visualise them lasting more than two or three more election cycles before their support collapses or they're absorbed by/ subordinated to the usual 3 parties. Just my opinion, but I don't think the "4-party era" will be very long-lived, if you could say it's come about at all. At the least I think it's too early to call. There's been an earthquake, yes, but whether it marks a completely new political era is in my eyes up for debate.

I'm interested to know what you think. Have we truly entered a four-party political era? Will UKIP win a substantial number of seats in Westminster and stay there as viable competitors? Will they take the Lib Dems' place as the third party? What would it take on the part of "the establishment" to neutralise the UKIP threat, since its tactics have failed so far? Any other thoughts on the challenges being faced by the leaders in the wake of the local results?

Edit: 500th post

 

Along similar lines to my thoughts. Disillusionment about immigration and current EU conditions will probably sustain them for a couple of years more I think. They'll last a little longer, but by the end of the next parliament they'll have largely fizzled out with their influence confined to the Euros again. A sizeable part of their base also seems to be from Labour, voters I'd imagine wouldn't instinctively ally themselves with such a party as UKIP so whose support is fairly unreliable. In generals they'd probably be nearly irrelevant.

On a side note, I guess the Big Three could ignore UKIP, but then again they've already tried that and if anything it's only added more fuel to the fire of voter alienation. Similarly the sustained media attacks had pretty much the opposite effect to what was intended. If they gave immigration and Europe more status as political issues like UKIP are doing, and genuinely put effort into knocking down UKIP arguments (without personal attacks) they could just starve UKIP of their oxygen. Not quite pandering to UKIP, just applying more (serious) scrutiny to the issues UKIP are talking about, since that's apparently what the electorate want the talk to be about.

Ah well. If anything, the main thing this election has indicated is that we seem to be on course for another hung parliament given that Miliband's in such a weak position for the GE next year.