MN Anti-Marriage Amendment Just for GOP Turnout

Vote ‘Yes’ Strategist Will Vote ‘No’

Disgusting. They pulled this crap in 2004, getting marriage amendments put on the ballot in many states in order to drive out Republican turnout and re-elect George W. Bush. I really hope it backfires for them in Minnesota.

 

I hope you're right.

But presidential election outcomes aren't a good judge of how these marriage amendments will turn out. In your state of Oregon, for example, 51% voted for John Kerry in 2004 while at the same time 57% voted to pass one of these amendments. In 2008, Barack Obama got 61% in California while at the same time 52% of Californians voted to pass Proposition H8.

Minnesota is a polarized state, home to a lot of Evangelical fundie wackos like Michele Bachmann. Remember, it's home to one of the school districts with the highest rate of LGBTQ teen suicides in the country.

 

According to the 2008 exit polls, people who voted for Proposition H8 also voted for McCain by a 61-37 margin. Those who voted no on Prop H8 voted for Obama by an 85-13 margin.

While there were unfortunately a lot of black voters and other Obama voters who backed Prop H8, I think it would be a mistake to blame its passing on Obama and the Democrats. Obama also motivated a very high youth turnout, which is the strongest demographic in support of marriage equality.

Plus, as I mentioned, Oregon is a Democratic state (and mostly white) and yet it passed its marriage amendment in 2004 by a large margin at the same time as it voted for John Kerry.

 

Oh, no doubt things are changing. While changing hearts and minds is definitely a big factor, there's also the hard reality that older, anti-equality voters are dying off and young pro-equality voters are replacing them.

But just pointing out that even in a clearly blue states like California and Oregon, these kinds of horrible things can pass. It's worse when we're dealing with Midwestern states where much of the Democratic vote is coming from socially conservative white working class/union types. Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio all have anti-equality amendments.

We're clearly at an advantage in terms of the states voting this year, fighting a defensive war now that all the conservative states have already passed these amendments. Maryland, Washington, and Maine I think have very good odds for us. And those are all referenda to actually legalize marriage equality once and for all.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is only voting on an amendment to make things worse for LGBTQers in that state if it passes; if it fails we still won't have equality there. And the race is tight.

Though, with Washington poised to pass marriage equality, I'm still kinda surprised by the big margin by which Oregon passed its marriage amendment. Do you have any idea why hate managed to win by such a landslide margin in an otherwise liberal state like Oregon?