The other day I allowed my mind to wander and I started to think “How many gay guys live in my small town” so I set about some basic research from a statistical point of view rather than using a number from a gay search app. I had to make some assumptions in my experiment which I will explain as I go along. If you have an interest in maths you may want to try a similar calculation for your area. So starting with the latest UK census information I looked at the percentages of population based on age and found that 34% of the UK population is in the range I am interested in i.e.30 – 55. I live in Sale a town that’s part of the hierarchical metropolitan area of Greater Manchester, one of the UKs best places to live for gay folks, so I am hoping the percentage of gay folk in the area is greater than the UK as a whole. It takes less that 15 min to drive from one side of Sale to the other depending on traffic. So the population of my surroundings all ages is Town Population Sale 55,234 Population Trafford 227,100 Population Gr. Manchester 2,685,400 So in my interest range of 30 – 55 population of my surroundings is Town Population Sale 18,780 Population Trafford 77,214 Population Gr. Manchester 913,036 According to published figures the percentage of UK that is gay is 7% so I made 2 calculations based on 5% and 10% to give a little margin either side to give the gay (guys and girls) population of my town so I had an idea how many brethren were out there. So at the low end based on 5% of the population gay folk in the 30 – 55 age group. Town Population Sale 939 Population Trafford 3,861 Population Gr. Manchester 45,652 So at the high end based on 10% of the population gay folk in the 30 – 55 age group. Town Population Sale 1,878 Population Trafford 7,721 Population Gr. Manchester 91,304 Assuming a roughly 50/50 split between guys and girls then in my small town of Sale in the age group I would be interested in (30-55) I should find between 939 and 1,878 gay gays and girls so for guys only between 469 and 939. If I do the same for the metro area then I would expect between 22,826 and 45,652 guys in my selected age group. So if my assumptions are correct and I can make rough statistical approximations I must be surrounded by gay guys so WHERE ARE THEY ALL HIDING? Interestingly the numbers of gay guys in my town reported by a well-known dating app are substantially lower. Of course this assumes an even distribution of gay folks across all ages and only includes those folks who openly say they are gay. It does not include closeted gay people or married gay folk. I also assume no religious pollution of the data and I have not made any allowance for the AIDS tragedy. This was all just a bit of wild fantasy but gives me at least some sort of clue as to how many gay guys are in my town in my selected age group. Sale Gay Guy
Interesting calculation! Not unlike the work that I do when estimating the number of patients we can find for our clinical trials. Thing is, there is an actual number of gay guys in the age-range you selected, based on the national statistic and assuming an even distribution (more likely in the Gr. Manchester area), but the crux of the matter is: how many of them are out? It's not where they are hiding, it is more that they are hiding!
How many just don't like hanging out on apps and gay bars. In the over 30s I bet quite a lot How many walk around the streets looking quite "normal" without any stereotypical dress codes or whatnot How many are resigned to sitting at home watching TV … like ME :icon_bigg
Honestly that's a question I wonder. As anyone who has read some of my loud whine, bitch, & moan posts knows. My county is big enough to support a LGBT social group, and yet, to date, the membership is 95% women. Probably closer to 100% when you subtract the men who joined, then vanished. I am not totally surprised. I'm not not any of those apps. I am not really interested in a hookup, and it's my impression that's all those apps do for practical purposes. Plus I don't even have a device the app can run on. My cell phone is a twenty dollar "it makes calls" special. My assumption with those apps is that the users are A) people looking for hookups, and B) decide this is the best way to get them. Others in group A) are happy with gay bars, or craigslist, or cruising the steam room at the nearest YMCA.
I guess I really am lucky to live where I do. You can't swing a dead cat here without hitting a gay guy...:roflmao: Sorry, not helpful, I know...
Yes, go ahead. Rub it in! Remind us to return the favor some time. (Just kidding!) And what about this talk about a dead cat? Remember: gay men don't like to go near pussy. :lol:
GW: I agree the larger population of Greater Manchester is more likely to give an accurate result of the gay population but there are always interesting anomalies . If I apply the national statistic of 7% gay to the 12 men that live in my road then there ought to be 0.8 of a gay guy living here and I guess since I’m married that’s me. But out of the 12 men at least 3 of us are gay, the other 2 live next door to me .. I must live in a 25% gay hotspot .. Yippee (!)(!). Oh that must almost count as being surrounded by gay guys! Bingostring: Your correct, the 2 gay guys living next-door to me Look quite “normal”, are not on gay hook-up apps, don’t go out to gay bars all that often, and spend a lot of time sitting around in front of the TV. Do I have to assume all the gay guys in my calculations not on dating apps are all paired off snuggled up in front of the TV .. :tears: BMC77: Those apps that I have tried all seem to be geared up for hook-ups, I’ve all but given up with them although occasionally Have a bit of chat with someone. I prefer using a web based social networking app, that’s not primarily aimed at hoop-ups, where I can at least type more than a few sentences. My biggest problem is I’m shy and reluctant to start conversations or if I do find someone I’m interested in I “Delete Tracks” so that person has no idea I’ve looked at them :eusa_doh:. I can’t understand why I do this .. well perhaps if I’m honest I can: it’s the fear I might meet someone I fall in love with then what happens with my “Open Marriage” where I agreed not to get into a LTR. OGS: I can never find a dead cat when I need one, perhaps your method of finding gay guys would work better that my Gaydar.:roflmao: Oops, sorry to cat lovers
